标题： 系统性贸易风险抑制了依赖稀土产业的比较优势 显示英文标题

标题： Systemic Trade Risk Suppresses Comparative Advantage in Rare Earth Dependent Industries

摘要： 稀土元素（REEs）对于一系列清洁和高科技应用至关重要，但全球贸易依赖性使各国在生产网络中面临脆弱性。 在这里，我们构建了一个多层级的投入产出贸易网络，涵盖2007-2023年间168种与稀土相关的产品代码，使用了一种新颖的人工智能增强统计框架。 我们发现了上游和中间（输入）产品之间依赖性的显著差异，揭示出在输入产品中，暴露程度和供应商集中度系统性更高，而系统性贸易风险较低，表明存在局部脆弱性。 通过计算国家和时间上的基于网络的依赖指标，我们将经济体分为五个不同的集群，这些集群捕捉了稀土依赖性的结构性差异。 中国主导着低风险、高影响力集群，而欧盟和美国在中间层级仍易受威胁。 回归分析显示，所有产品中的高暴露度可以预测未来的出口实力，这与进口替代一致。 然而，在磁铁、先进陶瓷或荧光材料等输入产品中的高系统性贸易风险，显著阻碍了比较优势的发展。 这些结果表明，战略依赖性的结构是层级特定的，对工业韧性和政策设计具有重要意义。 有效的缓解策略必须超越原材料获取，直接解决中游加工和关键输入生产中的国家特定瓶颈。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Rare earth elements (REEs) are critical to a wide range of clean and high-tech applications, yet global trade dependencies expose countries to vulnerabilities across production networks. Here, we construct a multi-tiered input-output trade network spanning 168 REE-related product codes from 2007-2023 using a novel AI-augmented statistical framework. We identify significant differences between dependencies in upstream and intermediate (input) products, revealing that exposure and supplier concentration are systematically higher in input products, while systemic trade risk is lower, suggesting localized vulnerabilities. By computing network-based dependency indicators across countries and over time, we classify economies into five distinct clusters that capture structural differences in rare-earth reliance. China dominates the low-risk, high-influence cluster, while the EU and US remain vulnerable at intermediate tiers. Regression analyses show that high exposure across all products predicts future export strength, consistent with import substitution. However, high systemic trade risk in input products like magnets, advanced ceramics or phosphors, significantly impedes the development of comparative advantage. These results demonstrate that the structure of strategic dependencies is tier-specific, with critical implications for industrial resilience and policy design. Effective mitigation strategies must move beyond raw material access and directly address country-specific chokepoints in midstream processing and critical input production.