标题： 基于证据的近地天体偏转动作鲁棒设计 显示英文标题

标题： Evidence-Based Robust Design of Deflection Actions for Near Earth Objects

摘要： 本文提出了一种新的方法，用于近地天体（NEO）偏转动作的鲁棒设计。 特别是，这里详细研究了通过太阳泵浦激光烧蚀进行偏转的情况。 激光烧蚀的基本思想是诱导近地天体表面的升华，从而产生低推力，缓慢地将小行星从其初始的地球威胁轨迹上偏离。 这项工作研究了在不确定性下的基于空间的激光系统和由激光烧蚀产生的偏转动作的集成设计。 集成设计被表述为一个多目标优化问题，其中最大化偏转并最小化整个系统质量。 假设用于估计表面激光烧蚀产生的推力的模型和航天器系统模型都受到认识论不确定性（部分或完全缺乏知识）的影响。 证据理论用于量化这些不确定性，并将其引入优化过程。 通过一种基于高斯变分方程近似解析解的新方法来执行受激光烧蚀作用的近地天体轨迹传播。 给出了使用航天器群对小行星阿波菲斯进行偏转设计的一个示例。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper presents a novel approach to the robust design of deflection actions for Near Earth Objects (NEO). In particular, the case of deflection by means of Solar-pumped Laser ablation is studied here in detail. The basic idea behind Laser ablation is that of inducing a sublimation of the NEO surface, which produces a low thrust thereby slowly deviating the asteroid from its initial Earth threatening trajectory. This work investigates the integrated design of the Space-based Laser system and the deflection action generated by laser ablation under uncertainty. The integrated design is formulated as a multi-objective optimisation problem in which the deviation is maximised and the total system mass is minimised. Both the model for the estimation of the thrust produced by surface laser ablation and the spacecraft system model are assumed to be affected by epistemic uncertainties (partial or complete lack of knowledge). Evidence Theory is used to quantify these uncertainties and introduce them in the optimisation process. The propagation of the trajectory of the NEO under the laser-ablation action is performed with a novel approach based on an approximated analytical solution of Gauss' Variational Equations. An example of design of the deflection of asteroid Apophis with a swarm of spacecraft is presented.