标题： 未来英国风力发电机组可能的经济上限建模的两种不同方法 显示英文标题

标题： Two Different Methods for Modelling the Likely Upper Economic Limit of the Future United Kingdom Wind Fleet

摘要： 用于预测英国风力发电机组可能的上限经济限制的方法应易于使用，同时能够应对不断发展的技术、成本和电网管理策略。 本文介绍了两种这样的模型，这两种模型都使用历史风况数据，但采用不同的方法来估算风力发电机组规模与风力削减量之间的关系。 从模型中可以看出，随着风力发电机组规模的增加，风力削减将逐步增加，从而降低风力发电机组的整体经济效率。 这些模型对效率损失的预测几乎相同，并表明未来风力发电机组的上限经济限制主要由风力发电机组的冗余空间决定，这一概念在论文中有详细描述。 这些结果具有普遍适用性，以图形形式呈现，应能避免进一步使用原始数据进行建模的需要。 本文还讨论了风力发电机组在减少电网碳排放方面的有效性，以及风能和太阳能发电机组作为英国电力来源日益增长的竞争关系。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Methods for predicting the likely upper economic limit for the wind fleet in the United Kingdom should be simple to use whilst being able to cope with evolving technologies, costs and grid management strategies. This paper present two such models, both of which use data on historical wind patterns but apply different approaches to estimating the extent of wind shedding as a function of the size of the wind fleet. It is clear from the models that as the wind fleet increases in size, wind shedding will progressively increase, and as a result the overall economic efficiency of the wind fleet will be reduced. The models provide almost identical predictions of the efficiency loss and suggest that the future upper economic limit of the wind fleet will be mainly determined by the wind fleet Headroom, a concept described in some detail in the paper. The results, which should have general applicability, are presented in graphical form, and should obviate the need for further modelling using the primary data. The paper also discusses the effectiveness of the wind fleet in decarbonising the grid, and the growing competition between wind and solar fleets as sources of electrical energy for the United Kingdom.