标题： 印度COVID-19的动力学建模与分析 显示英文标题

标题： Dynamical modelling and analysis of COVID-19 in India

摘要： 我们研究了武汉爆发新冠疫情后印度的疫情传播情况。我们利用官方早期报告的数据，并借助易感（S）、暴露（E）、感染（I）和移除（R）人群模型（即著名的SEIR动态模型），估计了印度新冠初始感染者的传播率。数值分析和模型验证被用来校准系统参数，这些参数基于关于感染者人数的公开信息，然后评估了若干可能适用于印度的新冠场景。 我们的研究结果对未来疾病发生情况提供了预测，并展示了政府和个人努力控制疫情相关关键情况的影响和时间的重要性。我们还特别强调了遏制过程中个人反应的重要性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We consider the pandemic spreading of COVID-19 in India after the outbreak of the coronavirus in Wuhan city, China. We estimate the transmission rate of the initial infecting individuals of COVID-19 in India by using the officially reported data at the early stage of the epidemic with the help of Susceptible (S), Exposed (E), Infected (I), and Removed (R) population model, the so-called SEIR dynamical model. Numerical analysis and model verification are performed to calibrate the system parameters with official public information about the number of people infected, and then to evaluate several COVID -19 scenarios potentially applicable to India. Our findings provide an estimation of disease occurrence in the near future and also demonstrate the importance of governmental and individual efforts to control the effects and time of the pandemic-related critical situations. We also give special emphasis to individual reactions in the containment process.