一般经济学

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[1] arXiv:2508.03757 [中文pdf, pdf, html, 其他]

标题： 人工智能投资与企业生产率：高管人口统计特征如何驱动日本企业的技术采用和绩效 显示英文标题

标题： AI Investment and Firm Productivity: How Executive Demographics Drive Technology Adoption and Performance in Japanese Enterprises

Tatsuru Kikuchi

评论： 37页，10图

主题： 一般经济学 (econ.GN)

本文利用来自500多家日本企业的全面数据，研究了高管人口统计特征，特别是年龄和性别如何影响人工智能（AI）投资决策及随后的企业生产率，时间跨度为2018年至2023年。 我们的核心研究问题探讨了高管特征在技术采用中的作用，发现CEO的年龄和技术背景显著预测了AI投资倾向。 采用这些人口统计特征作为工具变量以解决内生性问题，我们确定了由于AI投资采用而导致的总要素生产率统计上显著增加2.4%。 我们的新机制分解框架揭示了生产率提升通过三个不同的渠道发挥作用：成本降低（占总效应的40%）、收入增强（35%）和创新加速（25%）。 结果表明，较年轻的高管（低于50岁）采用AI技术的可能性高23%，而企业规模显著调节了这种关系。 总体预测表明，日本经济广泛采用AI可能对国内生产总值产生1.15万亿日元的影响。 这些发现为理解推动数字化转型的人类因素提供了重要的实证指导，并为公司治理和公共政策中关于AI投资激励措施提供了参考。 显示英文摘要

This paper investigates how executive demographics particularly age and gender influence artificial intelligence (AI) investment decisions and subsequent firm productivity using comprehensive data from over 500 Japanese enterprises spanning from 2018 to 2023. Our central research question addresses the role of executive characteristics in technology adoption, finding that CEO age and technical background significantly predict AI investment propensity. Employing these demographic characteristics as instrumental variables to address endogeneity concerns, we identify a statistically significant 2.4% increase in total factor productivity attributable to AI investment adoption. Our novel mechanism decomposition framework reveals that productivity gains operate through three distinct channels: cost reduction (40% of total effect), revenue enhancement (35%), and innovation acceleration (25%). The results demonstrate that younger executives (below 50 years) are 23% more likely to adopt AI technologies, while firm size significantly moderates this relationship. Aggregate projections suggest potential GDP impacts of 1.15 trillion JPY from widespread AI adoption across the Japanese economy. These findings provide crucial empirical guidance for understanding the human factors driving digital transformation and inform both corporate governance and public policy regarding AI investment incentives.

[2] arXiv:2508.03787 [中文pdf, pdf, html, 其他]

标题： 量化2025年燃油车突袭对加利福尼亚州农业产业的经济影响：欧亨德案例研究 显示英文标题

标题： Quantifying the Economic Impact of 2025 ICE Raids on California's Agricultural Industry: A Case Study of Oxnard

Xinyu Li

主题： 一般经济学 (econ.GN)

2025年，加利福尼亚州欧文市加强的移民和海关执法局（ICE）突袭行动扰乱了该州490亿美元的农业产业，该产业是美国75%的水果和坚果以及三分之一蔬菜的关键供应者。 本文使用计量经济学模型量化了这些突袭对劳动力市场、作物生产和食品价格的经济影响。 我们估计农业劳动力减少了20-40%，导致30-70亿美元的作物损失，并使农产品价格上涨5-12%。 分析基于美国农业部经济研究服务局的数据和最近的ICE拘留数据，数据显示南加州的逮捕人数从2025年5月的699人上升到6月的近2000人。 突袭对劳动密集型作物如草莓影响尤为严重，加剧了供应链的中断。 政策建议包括扩大H-2A签证计划和合法化无证工人以稳定该行业。 本研究通过提供关于移民执法经济代价的数据驱动评估，为农业经济学做出了贡献。 显示英文摘要

In 2025, intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Oxnard, California, disrupted the state's \$49 billion agricultural industry, a critical supplier of 75% of U.S. fruits and nuts and one-third of its vegetables. This paper quantifies the economic consequences of these raids on labor markets, crop production, and food prices using econometric modeling. We estimate a 20-40% reduction in the agricultural workforce, leading to \$3-7 billion in crop losses and a 5-12% increase in produce prices. The analysis draws on USDA Economic Research Service data and recent ICE detention figures, which show arrests in Southern California rising from 699 in May to nearly 2,000 in June 2025. The raids disproportionately affect labor-intensive crops like strawberries, exacerbating supply chain disruptions. Policy recommendations include expanding the H-2A visa program and legalizing undocumented workers to stabilize the sector. This study contributes to agricultural economics by providing a data-driven assessment of immigration enforcement's economic toll.

[3] arXiv:2508.03855 [中文pdf, pdf, html, 其他]

标题： 出口、劳动力市场与环境：来自巴西的证据 显示英文标题

标题： Exports, Labor Markets, and the Environment: Evidence from Brazil

Carlos Góes, Otavio Conceição, Gabriel Lara Ibarra, Gladys Lopez-Acevedo

主题： 一般经济学 (econ.GN)

什么是出口的环境影响？ 专注于2000-20年，本文结合海关、行政和人口普查的微观数据，以估计出口对就业的弹性。 研究结果表明，面临出口增加的市镇在正式就业方面增长更快。 弹性在最初为0.25，在0.4时达到峰值，并且在冲击发生10年后仍保持积极且显著，这表明劳动力市场调整是长期且持续的。 从长期来看，非正式就业对出口冲击的反应是负面的。 使用基于其环境影响的经济活动细分类别，本文记录了环境风险较高的活动比环境可持续的活动拥有更大的就业份额，并且这些活动与出口之间的关系是复杂的。 在短期内，相对于环境可持续的就业，环境风险较高的就业对出口的反应更强烈。 然而，在长期中，这种模式发生了逆转，因为出口对环境可持续就业的影响更为持久。 显示英文摘要

What is the environmental impact of exports? Focusing on 2000-20, this paper combines customs, administrative, and census microdata to estimate employment elasticities with respect to exports. The findings show that municipalities that faced increased exports experienced faster growth in formal employment. The elasticities were 0.25 on impact, peaked at 0.4, and remained positive and significant even 10 years after the shock, pointing to a long and protracted labor market adjustment. In the long run, informal employment responds negatively to export shocks. Using a granular taxonomy for economic activities based on their environmental impact, the paper documents that environmentally risky activities have a larger share of employment than environmentally sustainable ones, and that the relationship between these activities and exports is nuanced. Over the short run, environmentally risky employment responds more strongly to exports relative to environmentally sustainable employment. However, over the long run, this pattern reverses, as the impact of exports on environmentally sustainable employment is more persistent.

[4] arXiv:2508.04302 [中文pdf, pdf, 其他]

标题： EEA专业气候调查报告 显示英文标题

标题： EEA Professional Climate Survey Report

Tim Lee, Massimo Morelli, Marvin Pappalettera, Dario Sansone, Sulin Sardoschau

主题： 一般经济学 (econ.GN)

2023年，欧洲经济协会（EEA）经济学中的少数群体（MinE）委员会与德国经济协会（VfS）合作，开展了一项职业环境调查，以评估欧洲经济学领域的多样性、公平性和包容性。该调查收集了861名现任和前任EEA成员的反馈，涵盖了性别、种族、LGBTQ+身份、残疾和社会经济背景等方面的人口统计数据和体验。结果显示，在对包容性、尊重和职业待遇的感知方面存在广泛的差异。女性、种族少数群体、LGBTQ+人士和残疾人报告的歧视、排斥和骚扰情况显著更高。地理差异也显现出来，北欧国家报告的职业环境最为积极，而英国和意大利则表现出更高的不满和歧视水平。与2018年美国经济协会的调查相比，欧洲受访者总体满意度较低。 显示英文摘要

In 2023, the European Economic Association (EEA) Minorities in Economics (MinE) Committee, in collaboration with the German Economic Association (VfS), conducted a professional climate survey to assess diversity, equity, and inclusion in the European economics profession.The survey gathered responses from 861 current and former EEA members, capturing demographic data and experiences across gender, ethnicity, LGBTQ+ identity, disability, and socioeconomic background. Results revealed widespread disparities in perceptions of inclusion, respect, and professional treatment. Reports of discrimination, exclusion, and harassment were significantly higher among women, ethnic minorities, LGBTQ+ individuals, and people with disabilities. Geographic differences also emerged, with the Nordic countries reporting the most positive climate and the UK and Italy showing higher levels of dissatisfaction and discrimination. Compared to the American Economic Association 2018 survey, European respondents reported lower satisfaction overall.

[5] arXiv:2508.04371 [中文pdf, pdf, html, 其他]

标题： 测试资源保护中的溢出效应：来自自然现场实验的证据 显示英文标题

标题： Testing Spillovers in Resource Conservation: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment

Lorenz Goette, Zhi Hao Lim

主题： 一般经济学 (econ.GN)

本文研究了旨在促进资源节约的行为干预措施在某一领域产生的潜在效果，是否会引发另一领域的溢出效应。 通过一项涉及约2000名居民的大规模自然现场实验，我们评估了实时反馈和社交比较对水和能源消耗的直接效应和溢出效应。 实施了三种干预措施：两种针对淋浴使用，一种针对空调使用。 我们记录到由于节水干预措施导致淋浴使用显著减少，但节能干预措施对空调使用没有直接影响。 对于溢出效应，我们精确估计了节水干预措施对空调使用没有影响，反之亦然。 显示英文摘要

This paper studies the potential for behavioral interventions aimed at promoting resource conservation within one domain to induce spillovers in another. Through a large-scale natural field experiment involving around 2,000 residents, we assess the direct and spillover effects of real-time feedback and social comparisons on water and energy consumption. Three interventions were implemented: two targeting shower use and one targeting air-conditioning use. We document a significant reduction in shower use attributable to both water-saving interventions, but no direct effects on air-conditioning use from the energy-saving intervention. For spillovers, we precisely estimated null effects on air-conditioning use arising from the water-saving interventions, and vice versa.

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[6] arXiv:2508.03708 (替换) [中文pdf, pdf, 其他]

标题： 税解决器：设计最优所得税改革的方法学 显示英文标题

标题： TaxSolver: A methodology to design optimal income tax reform

Mark Verhagen, Menno Schellekens, Michael Garstka

评论： 47页，14图，4表

主题： 一般金融 (q-fin.GN) ; 一般经济学 (econ.GN) ; 系统与控制 (eess.SY)

在发达国家，越来越呼吁简化并改进日益复杂的收入税法。 执行改革证明是困难的。 即使改革的预期结果很明确，但设计合适改革的工具却缺乏。 为了解决这个问题，我们开发了\texttt{税务求解器}：一种帮助政策制定者实现最优收入税改革的方法。 \texttt{税务求解器}使政策制定者只需专注于改革的目标——如重新分配财富、激励劳动力市场参与或减少复杂性——以及改革可接受的保证——如限制纳税人收入的波动、保护家庭免于陷入贫困或整体税收收入的冲击。 在这些目标和财政保证下，\texttt{税务求解器}找到满足所有标准的最佳税收规则集，或显示这些要求在数学上不可行。 我们通过改革各种模拟的税法示例来说明\texttt{税务求解器}，包括一些反映现实世界税收制度的复杂性和规模的例子。 显示英文摘要

Across the developed world, there are growing calls to streamline and improve ever more complex income tax codes. Executing reform has proven difficult. Even when the desired outcomes of a reform are clear, the tools to design fitting reforms are lacking. To remedy this, we developed \texttt{TaxSolver}: a methodology to help policymakers realize optimal income tax reform. \texttt{TaxSolver} allows policymakers to focus solely on what they aim to achieve with a reform -- like redistributing wealth, incentivizing labor market participation or reducing complexity -- and the guarantees within which reform is acceptable -- like limiting fluctuations in taxpayer incomes, protecting households from falling into poverty or shocks to overall tax revenue. Given these goals and fiscal guarantees, \texttt{TaxSolver} finds the optimal set of tax rules that satisfies all the criteria or shows that the set of demands are not mathematically feasible. We illustrate \texttt{TaxSolver} by reforming various simulated examples of tax codes, including some that reflect the complexity and size of a real-world tax system.