标题： 原油和汽油：重新审视公平价格 显示英文标题

标题： Crude oil and motor fuel: Fair price revisited

摘要： 2009年4月，我们引入了一个模型，该模型将汽油价格（运输消费者价格指数的一个子类）相对于整体CPI的演变表示为时间的线性函数。 在我们的框架下，所有价格偏离线性趋势的情况都是暂时的，价格必须迅速回到趋势线上。 具体而言，该模型预测“到2009年底，美国的汽油价格也将增长50%。 预计油价将在未来5到8年内从目前的每桶约$50 per barrel". The behavior of actual price has shown that this prediction is accurate in both amplitude and trajectory shape. Hence, one can conclude that the concept of price decomposition into a short-term (oscillating) and long-term (linear trend) components is valid. According to the model, the price of motor fuel and crude oil will be falling to the level of $30 上涨约50%。” 显示英文摘要

摘要： In April 2009, we introduced a model representing the evolution of motor fuel price (a subcategory of the consumer price index of transportation) relative to the overall CPI as a linear function of time. Under our framework, all price deviations from the linear trend are transient and the price must promptly return to the trend. Specifically, the model predicted that "the price for motor fuel in the US will also grow by 50% by the end of 2009. Oil price is expected to rise by ~50% as well, from its current value of ~$50 per barrel". The behavior of actual price has shown that this prediction is accurate in both amplitude and trajectory shape. Hence, one can conclude that the concept of price decomposition into a short-term (oscillating) and long-term (linear trend) components is valid. According to the model, the price of motor fuel and crude oil will be falling to the level of $30 per barrel during the next 5 to 8 years.