标题： 退出民调与种族集团投票：结合个体层面和R$\times$C生态数据 显示英文标题

标题： Exit polling and racial bloc voting: Combining individual-level and R$\times$C ecological data

摘要： 尽管存在不足之处，跨层级推断或生态推断仍然是定量推断某些领域（包括美国投票权诉讼）的必要组成部分。 生态推断存在识别问题，大多数人认为，通过将个体层面数据纳入模型可以最好地解决这一问题。 本文通过尝试结合出口民调和选区层面的生态数据来推断种族投票模式，测试了这种纳入方式的极限；准确了解种族投票模式对于评估可能决定美国立法机构构成的投票权法律中的触发机制至关重要。 具体而言，我们扩展并研究了一种适用于任意维度双向表的混合模型。 我们将该混合模型应用于我们在2008年对波士顿市进行的出口民调。 利用由此产生的数据以及模拟，我们比较了纯生态估计量、使用各种抽样方案的纯调查估计量和我们的混合模型的表现。 我们得出结论，混合估计量通过使关于投票模式的实质性推断成为可能（而这些推断在不使用它的情况下无法实现），提供了显著的优势。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Despite its shortcomings, cross-level or ecological inference remains a necessary part of some areas of quantitative inference, including in United States voting rights litigation. Ecological inference suffers from a lack of identification that, most agree, is best addressed by incorporating individual-level data into the model. In this paper we test the limits of such an incorporation by attempting it in the context of drawing inferences about racial voting patterns using a combination of an exit poll and precinct-level ecological data; accurate information about racial voting patterns is needed to assess triggers in voting rights laws that can determine the composition of United States legislative bodies. Specifically, we extend and study a hybrid model that addresses two-way tables of arbitrary dimension. We apply the hybrid model to an exit poll we administered in the City of Boston in 2008. Using the resulting data as well as simulation, we compare the performance of a pure ecological estimator, pure survey estimators using various sampling schemes and our hybrid. We conclude that the hybrid estimator offers substantial benefits by enabling substantive inferences about voting patterns not practicably available without its use.