标题： 一种关于手球比赛结果的统计观点：主场优势、球队状态与比赛结果预测 显示英文标题

标题： A statistical view on team handball results: home advantage, team fitness and prediction of match outcomes

摘要： 我们采用无模型的统计时间序列方法，分析了德国手球甲级联赛十个赛季的结果。 我们将表明，与总进球数相比，主场优势几乎可以忽略不计。 特别关注的是以净胜球表示的球队实力随时间的演化。 与足球不同，我们的结果显示一个赛季内球队实力会衰减，而多年间的长期相关性行为则大致相当。 我们能够通过比赛中的总进球数来解释少数几支主导球队的表现。 提出了一种预测比赛胜者的方法，并且其准确度与实际结果相符。 我们分析了升班马的特性，并指出德甲和次级联赛之间存在显著的实力变化。 我们的发现与近期关于现代成功进攻策略的讨论结果非常吻合。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We analyze the results of the German Team Handball Bundesliga for ten seasons in a model-free statistical time series approach. We will show that the home advantage is nearly negligible compared to the total sum of goals. Specific interest has been spent on the time evolution of the team fitness expressed in terms of the goal difference. In contrast to soccer, our results indicate a decay of the team fitness values over a season while the long time correlation behavior over years is nearly comparable. We are able to explain the dominance of a few teams by the large value for the total number of goals in a match. A method for the prediction of match winners is presented in good accuracy with the real results. We analyze the properties of promoted teams and indicate drastic level changes between the Bundesliga and the second league. Our findings reflect in good agreement recent discussions on modern successful attack strategies.