标题： 预测中子星温度：可预测性和变异性 显示英文标题

标题： Forecasting neutron star temperatures: predictability and variability

摘要： 现在可以对中子星的热弛豫进行建模，这些中子星在吸积爆发后会因其外壳中的核反应而偏离平衡状态并被加热。这些模型中的主要不确定性可以通过调整少量调节参数来体现，这些参数会影响外壳的热导率、比热容和加热速率。 通过对热弛豫的观测可以限制这些调节参数，并使我们能够根据中子星核心温度来预测更长时间尺度上的变化。 我们通过建模正在进行热弛豫的中子星XTE J1701-462明确地证明了这一点。它在未来5到30年的冷却过程受到强烈约束，主要取决于其核心温度，而外壳物理方面的不确定性基本上已经通过拟合前三年的观测数据得到了确定。 显示英文摘要

摘要： It is now possible to model thermal relaxation of neutron stars after bouts of accretion during which the star is heated out of equilibrium by nuclear reactions in its crust. Major uncertainties in these models can be encapsulated in modest variations of a handful of fudge parameters that change the crustal thermal conductivity, specific heat, and heating rates. Observations of thermal relaxation constrain these fudge parameters and allow us to predict longer term variability in terms of the neutron star core temperature. We demonstrate this explicitly by modeling ongoing thermal relaxation in the neutron star XTE J1701-462. Its future cooling, over the next 5 to 30 years, is strongly constrained and depends mostly on its core temperature, uncertainties in crust physics having essentially been pinned down by fitting to the first three years of observations.