标题： 战争的衰退还是积极检查的终结？ 1816-2007年间战争规模分布的变化分析 显示英文标题

标题： Decline of war or end of positive check? Analysis of change in war size distribution between 1816-2007

摘要： 这项研究考察了战争期间死亡风险是否有所下降，以检验“长期和平”假说。 分析依赖于扩展的战争数据集（Gleditsch，2004），涵盖1816年至2007年之间的国内和国际战争。 使用未经转换的战争规模数据，估计结果未能提供战争随时间下降的经验证据。 然而，对全球人口进行数据归一化表明，自1947年起战争可能有所减少。 结果表明，尽管人口增长强劲，战争并未变得更加严重。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This study examines whether there has been a decline in the risk of death by battle during wars, testing the 'long peace' hypothesis. The analysis relies on the Expanded War Dataset (Gleditsch, 2004) covering intra- and inter-state wars between 1816-2007. Using untransformed data on war sizes, the estimates do not provide empirical evidence for a decline in war over time. However, normalising the data for global human population does illustrate a likely decline in war from 1947 onward. The results indicate that despite strong population growth wars have not become more severe.