标题： 何时何地：估计外来害虫和病原体的引进日期和地点 显示英文标题

标题： When and where: estimating the date and location of introduction for exotic pests and pathogens

摘要： 在一种新疾病爆发或外来害虫入侵期间，一个基本的问题是：它是在哪个地点和日期首次被引入的？ 有了这些信息，就可以预测并可能避免未来的引入。 点过程模型常用于绘制物种分布和疾病发生情况。 如果知道引入的时间和地点，就可以使用点过程模型来绘制和理解影响引入的因素；然而，很少能直接观察到引入过程。 我们提出在通常用于理解入侵时空动态的分层贝叶斯模型中嵌入一个点过程。 在分层贝叶斯模型中包含一个点过程，可以从对这一过程的间接观察中进行关于引入地点和日期的推断，例如物种或疾病发生记录。 我们使用疾病监测数据来说明我们的方法，这些数据用于监测白鼻症，这是一种威胁许多北美洲蝙蝠物种的真菌疾病。 我们使用模型和监测数据来估计病原体被引入美国的地点和日期。 最后，我们将模型的预测与从最先进的基于回归的统计和机器学习方法获得的预测进行比较。 我们的结果表明，导致白鼻症的病原体很可能在首次发现前4年就被引入美国，但该估计存在中等程度的不确定性。 引入地点可能比首次发现地点向东多达510公里，但我们的结果表明，首次发现地点很可能是引入地点的概率相对较高。 显示英文摘要

摘要： A fundamental question during the outbreak of a novel disease or invasion of an exotic pest is: At what location and date was it first introduced? With this information, future introductions can be anticipated and perhaps avoided. Point process models are commonly used for mapping species distribution and disease occurrence. If the time and location of introductions were known, then point process models could be used to map and understand the factors that influence introductions; however, rarely is the process of introduction directly observed. We propose embedding a point process within hierarchical Bayesian models commonly used to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of invasion. Including a point process within a hierarchical Bayesian model enables inference regarding the location and date of introduction from indirect observation of the process such as species or disease occurrence records. We illustrate our approach using disease surveillance data collected to monitor white-nose syndrome, which is a fungal disease that threatens many North American species of bats. We use our model and surveillance data to estimate the location and date that the pathogen was introduced into the United States. Finally, we compare forecasts from our model to forecasts obtained from state-of-the-art regression-based statistical and machine learning methods. Our results show that the pathogen causing white-nose syndrome was most likely introduced into the United States 4 years prior to the first detection, but there is a moderate level of uncertainty in this estimate. The location of introduction could be up to 510 km east of the location of first discovery, but our results indicate that there is a relatively high probability the location of first detection could be the location of introduction.