标题： 反事实系动词及其在大学教育对代际流动性影响中的应用 显示英文标题

标题： Counterfactual Copula and Its Application to the Effects of College Education on Intergenerational Mobility

摘要： 本文提出了一种非参数估计器，用于估计受政策干预影响的两个结果变量的反事实copula。 该估计器使决策者能够通过比较估计的反事实和实际的copula及其相应的关联度量来进行事前评估。 在正则性条件下建立了反事实copula估计器的渐近性质。 这些条件还用于验证非参数自助法以推断反事实数量。 模拟结果表明，在适度大小的样本中，我们的估计和推理程序表现良好。 将所提出的方法应用于研究大学教育对两代人之间收入流动性的影响，我们发现虽然向所有孩子提供一些大学教育不太可能促进流动性，但向受教育较少家庭的孩子提供大学学位可以显著减少收入在代际间的持久性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper proposes a nonparametric estimator of the counterfactual copula of two outcome variables that would be affected by a policy intervention. The proposed estimator allows policymakers to conduct ex-ante evaluations by comparing the estimated counterfactual and actual copulas as well as their corresponding measures of association. Asymptotic properties of the counterfactual copula estimator are established under regularity conditions. These conditions are also used to validate the nonparametric bootstrap for inference on counterfactual quantities. Simulation results indicate that our estimation and inference procedures perform well in moderately sized samples. Applying the proposed method to studying the effects of college education on intergenerational income mobility under two counterfactual scenarios, we find that while providing some college education to all children is unlikely to promote mobility, offering a college degree to children from less educated families can significantly reduce income persistence across generations.