标题： 美中贸易战和新冠疫情对美国进口的双重影响：中国产业链的转移？ 显示英文标题

标题： Dual Effects of the US-China Trade War and COVID-19 on United States Imports: Transfer of China's industrial chain?

摘要： 自2018年以来，美国和中国之间的贸易紧张局势导致世界两个最大经济体的持续脱钩。 2020年疫情爆发使这一过程更加复杂，并产生了许多意想不到的后果。 本文研究了美国进口商对贸易战以及由于新冠疫情全球封锁的反应。 我们分别和综合地考察了这两个事件对美国进口的影响，涉及各种经济范围。 我们的研究结果揭示了美国、中国和东南亚之间复杂的贸易动态，通过这种动态，企业将全球供应链的部分环节从中国转移出去以避免高关税。 我们的分析表明，关税的增加导致美国从中国进口减少。 同时， 东南亚出口商通过更多参与组装和完成产品，更加融入以中国供应商为中心的价值链。 然而，疫情期间的全球封锁逆转了这一趋势，在此期间，美国实际上从中国直接进口了更多的商品，并通过从中国进口的东南亚出口商间接进口了更多的商品。 显示英文摘要

摘要： The trade tension between the U.S. and China since 2018 has caused a steady decoupling of the world's two largest economies. The pandemic outbreak in 2020 complicated this process and had numerous unanticipated repercussions. This paper investigates how U.S. importers reacted to the trade war and worldwide lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the effects of the two incidents on U.S. imports separately and collectively, with various economic scopes. Our findings uncover intricate trading dynamics among the U.S., China, and Southeast Asia, through which businesses relocated portions of their global supply chain away from China to avoid high tariffs. Our analysis indicates that increased tariffs cause the U.S. to import less from China. Meanwhile, Southeast Asian exporters have integrated more into value chains centered on Chinese suppliers by participating more in assembling and completing products. However, the worldwide lockdowns over pandemic have reversed this trend as, over this period, the U.S. effectively imported more goods directly from China and indirectly through Southeast Asian exporters that imported from China.