标题： 公共债务和政府支出冲击的财政成本 显示英文标题

标题： The Fiscal Cost of Public Debt and Government Spending Shocks

摘要： 本文研究了公共债务的成本如何影响财政政策及其对经济的影响。 使用美国的历史数据，我表明当偿还债务造成财政负担时，政府在面对支出冲击时会限制债务发行。 结果是，初始冲击在短期内仅引发公共支出的有限增加，甚至在长期内导致支出逆转。 在这些条件下，财政政策失去了刺激经济活动的能力。 这种结果是由于财政当局限制自身的借贷能力，以确保公共债务的可持续性。 这些发现对多种识别和估计策略具有稳健性。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This paper investigates how the cost of public debt shapes fiscal policy and its effect on the economy. Using U.S. historical data, I show that when servicing the debt creates a fiscal burden, the government responds to spending shocks by limiting debt issuance. As a result, the initial shock triggers only a limited increase in public spending in the short run, and even leads to spending reversal in the long run. Under these conditions, fiscal policy loses its ability to stimulate economic activity. This outcome arises as the fiscal authority limits its own ability to borrow to ensure public debt sustainability. These findings are robust to several identification and estimation strategies.