标题： 格陵兰融水对大西洋翻转变化的突然性和可逆性影响有限 显示英文标题

标题： Limited impact of Greenland meltwater on abruptness and reversibility of future Atlantic overturning changes

摘要： 所有气候模型都预测，大西洋经向翻转环流（AMOC）将在21世纪减弱，但大多数模型忽略了格陵兰冰盖融水量的增加。预计格陵兰融水将加剧AMOC的减弱，而忽略它会增加评估AMOC未来突然崩溃或临界点可能性的不确定性。在这里，我们在一种最先进的气候模型中测试了在强未来全球变暖条件下AMOC变化的突然性和可逆性，该模型考虑和不考虑物理上合理的格陵兰融水强迫。虽然格陵兰融水显著加剧了未来的AMOC减弱，但模拟的长期AMOC变化既不是突然的也不是不可逆的。虽然考虑格陵兰融水将提高气候预测的准确性，但我们的结果表明，格陵兰融水对于评估未来AMOC临界点风险的重要性可能比以前认为的要小。 显示英文摘要

摘要： All climate models project that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) will weaken in the 21st century, but most models neglect increasing runoff from the Greenland ice sheet. Greenland meltwater is expected to exacerbate AMOC weakening, and omitting it increases the uncertainty in assessing the possibility of a future abrupt collapse or tipping of the AMOC. Here, we test the abruptness and reversibility of AMOC changes under strong future global warming in a state-of-the-art climate model with and without physically plausible Greenland meltwater forcing. While Greenland meltwater significantly exacerbates future AMOC weakening, modeled long-term AMOC changes are neither abrupt nor irreversible. While accounting for Greenland meltwater will increase the accuracy of climate projections, our results suggest that the importance of Greenland meltwater for assessing the risk of future AMOC tipping may be smaller than previously thought.