标题： 台风路径受细尺度云对环境的反馈调控 显示英文标题

标题： Typhoon Tracks Regulated by Feedbacks of Fine-Scale Clouds to Environment

摘要： 准确的热带气旋（TC）路径预测对于减轻热带气旋对人类生命和环境的灾难性影响至关重要。 尽管多年来对热带气旋（TC）路径预测进行了研究，但被称为路径预报失败（TFBs）的大误差经常发生，且其原因仍不明确。 在这里，我们使用一种独特的TC下分辨率策略，对TC路径对细尺度云对环境的反馈强度的敏感性进行定量评估，检查了几十个TC。 我们表明，由于TFBs的环境引导较弱，有利于分散的积雨云，捕捉由这些细尺度云引起的行星涡度平流的不对称分布可以纠正60%的TFBs。 我们对这种重要的TC路径可预测性来源的明确识别，有望在模型大尺度行为改善以及更细尺度的TC云及其与环境的相互作用得到更好解析的情况下，持续改进TC路径预测。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Accurate tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction is crucial for mitigating the catastrophic impacts of TCs on human life and the environment. Despite decades of research on tropical cyclone (TC) track prediction, large errors known as track forecast busts (TFBs) occur frequently, and their causes remain poorly understood. Here, we examine a few dozens of TCs using a unique TC downscaling strategy that can quantitatively assess the sensitivity of TC track on the strength of feedbacks of fine-scale clouds to environment. We show that as TFBs have a weaker environmental steering that favors scattering cumulonimbus clouds, capturing asymmetric distribution of planetary vorticity advection induced by such fine-scale clouds corrects TFBs by 60 percent. Our clear identification of such important TC track predictability source promises continuous improvement of TC track prediction as finer-scale TC clouds and their interactions with environment are better resolved as model larger-scale behaviors have improved.