标题： 玻利维亚危机模拟器（KISr-p）：一个实证基础的建模框架 显示英文标题

标题： The Crisis Simulator for Bolivia (KISr-p): An Empirically Grounded Modeling Framework

摘要： 本文件详细介绍了“玻利维亚危机模拟器（KISr-p）”，这是一个季度随机模型，旨在评估在高不确定性和结构性约束环境下的各种宏观经济政策策略的影响。 与标准的一般均衡框架不同，该模拟器基于大量元分析的综合实证结果，采用凯恩斯跨期综合（KIS）的理论架构，并结合常替代弹性（KIS-CES）生产函数。 每个模型模块——实际、财政、货币、外部、劳动力和分配——的校准均被详细描述，参数由财政乘数层级的定量证据（Gechert和Rannenberg，2018）、生产要素的互补性（Gechert等，2022）、劳动力市场中的买方垄断力量（Sokolova和S{\o }rensen，2021）以及汇率和利率传递动态来证明。 该模型整合这些实证规律，生成非线性动态，如状态依赖乘数、对冲击的不对称反应以及商业周期阶段的相互作用。 模拟结果突显了财政调整、外部融资、债务重组和结构性改革之间的权衡——例如激进的支出再分配和定向公共投资。 情景显示，优先考虑支出的\textit{组合}而不是其总体水平，并认识到制度摩擦的实际政策方法，相比教条的、一刀切的处方，能够产生更好的宏观经济和福利结果。 显示英文摘要

摘要： This document presents a detailed technical report of the ``Crisis Simulator for Bolivia (KISr-p),'' a quarterly stochastic model designed to evaluate the impact of various macroeconomic policy strategies in an environment of high uncertainty and structural constraints. Unlike standard general equilibrium frameworks, this simulator is grounded in the consolidated empirical findings of a vast collection of meta-analyses, adopting the theoretical architecture of a Keynesian Intertemporal Synthesis (KIS) with a Constant Elasticity of Substitution (KIS-CES) production function. The calibration of each model block -- real, fiscal, monetary, external, labor, and distributional -- is described in detail, with parameters justified by quantitative evidence on the hierarchy of fiscal multipliers (Gechert and Rannenberg, 2018), the complementarity of production factors (Gechert et al., 2022), monopsony power in the labor market (Sokolova and S{\o}rensen, 2021), and the dynamics of exchange rate and interest-rate pass-through. The model integrates these empirical regularities to generate non-linear dynamics such as state-dependent multipliers, asymmetric responses to shocks, and business-cycle phase interactions. Simulation results highlight the trade-offs between fiscal adjustment, external financing, debt restructuring, and structural reforms -- such as aggressive spending reallocation and targeted public investment. Scenarios show that pragmatic policy approaches that prioritize the \textit{composition} of spending over its aggregate level and that recognize institutional frictions yield superior macroeconomic and welfare outcomes compared to doctrinaire, one-size-fits-all prescriptions.