标题： 评估集中市场中的局部策略 显示英文标题

标题： Evaluating Local Policies in Centralized Markets

摘要： 我们研究集中市场中的政策评估问题。 我们证明，任何边际改革的总体影响，即边际政策效应（MPE），可以使用基线均衡的数据非参数地识别，而无需政策规则的额外变化。 我们通过构建均衡调整的结果来实现这一点：一个政策不变的结构对象，它将代理人的结果与其参与对他人产生的全部均衡外部性相结合。 我们证明这些外部性可以使用在实证工作中已经常见的估计量来构建。 MPE被识别为我们的结构结果与改革方向之间的协方差，这为最优政策定位提供了一个灵活的工具，并为边际处理效应文献提供了一种新的桥梁。 显示英文摘要

摘要： We study a policy evaluation problem in centralized markets. We show that the aggregate impact of any marginal reform, the Marginal Policy Effect (MPE), is nonparametrically identified using data from a baseline equilibrium, without additional variation in the policy rule. We achieve this by constructing the equilibrium-adjusted outcome: a policy-invariant structural object that augments an agent's outcome with the full equilibrium externality their participation imposes on others. We show that these externalities can be constructed using estimands that are already common in empirical work. The MPE is identified as the covariance between our structural outcome and the reform's direction, providing a flexible tool for optimal policy targeting and a novel bridge to the Marginal Treatment Effects literature.