标题： 欧洲可再生能源与化石能源电力公司之间的盈利能力差距扩大 显示英文标题

标题： The Widening Profitability Gap between Renewable and Fossil Power Firms in Europe

摘要： 动员私人资本是能源转型的关键瓶颈，但近期化石燃料电力公司的危机驱动型超额利润表明，市场信号可能仍然偏向于高碳资产。 在这里，我们分析了900家欧洲电力公司（2001-2023）的面板数据，以确定这些利润是反映持久的盈利能力优势还是危机驱动的异常现象。 使用机器学习聚类和贝叶斯模型平均，我们识别出一种结构性分歧：风能和太阳能组合表现出上升的盈利能力，其中以风能为主的公司的资产回报率在2014年至2023年间增长了超过6%。 相反，更高的化石燃料组合份额越来越多地与较低的盈利能力相关联，到2023年其边际效应达到-4%，而以可再生能源为主的公司在大多数欧洲地区的表现与化石燃料密集型公司相当或更优。 这些发现表明，化石燃料现有企业的创纪录利润是独特的异常值，掩盖了高碳商业模式盈利能力的持续下降。 显示英文摘要

摘要： Mobilising private capital is a critical bottleneck of the energy transition, yet recent crisis-driven windfall profits for fossil power firms suggest that market signals may still favour carbon-intensive assets. Here we analyse a panel of 900 European power firms (2001-2023) to resolve whether these profits reflect a durable profitability advantage or a crisis-driven anomaly. Using machine-learning clustering and Bayesian model averaging, we identify a structural divergence: wind and solar portfolios exhibit rising profitability, with return on assets among wind-dominated firms increasing by over 6% between 2014 and 2023. Conversely, higher fossil portfolio shares are increasingly associated with lower profitability, with marginal effects reaching -4% by 2023, while renewable-dominated firms match or outperform their fossil-heavy counterparts across most European regions. These findings suggest that the record profits of fossil incumbents were distinct outliers, masking an ongoing decline in the profitability of carbon-intensive business models.